{"id":32286,"date":"2021-11-27T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-26T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/?p=32286"},"modified":"2024-04-30T11:35:02","modified_gmt":"2024-04-30T03:35:02","slug":"%e5%a4%a7%e7%81%bd%e9%9b%a3%e5%be%8c%e7%9a%84%e6%b7%98%e6%b4%97%ef%bc%9a%e6%98%af%e3%80%8c%e9%a6%ac%e5%a4%aa%e6%95%88%e6%87%89%e3%80%8d%e9%82%84%e6%98%af%e3%80%8c%e5%80%96%e5%ad%98%e8%80%85%e5%81%8f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/?p=32286","title":{"rendered":"\u5927\u707d\u96e3\u5f8c\u7684\u6dd8\u6d17\uff1a\u662f\u300c\u99ac\u592a\u6548\u61c9\u300d\u9084\u662f\u300c\u5016\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>2021\u5e7411\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7d05\u5341\u5b57\u6703\u8207\u7d05\u65b0\u6708\u6703\u570b\u969b\u806f\u5408\u6703\uff08IFRC\uff09\u767c\u5e03\u540d\u70ba\u300c\u6df9\u6c92\u5728\u8868\u5c64\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff08Drowning just below the surface\uff09\u300d\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u91cd\u9ede\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-verse\">\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u6bc0\u6ec5\u6027\u6b21\u7d1a\u6548\u61c9\uff08secondary effects\uff09\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u50b7\u5bb3\u5230\u6211\u5011\u7684\u793e\u6703\u7d50\u69cb\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u5e74\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u611f\u53d7\u5f97\u5230\u3002<\/pre>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-verse\">\u65e9\u5df2\u5f31\u52e2\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u885d\u7a81\u3001\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u548c\u8ca7\u7aae\uff0c\u88ab\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u63a8\u5411\u908a\u7de3\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u6bd4\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u4e1f\u6389\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u66f4\u5e38\u5728\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u98fd\u53d7\uff08\u9632\u75ab\uff09\u9650\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u885d\u64ca\u7684\u7522\u696d\u90e8\u9580\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u6bd4\u65b9\u89c0\u5149\u696d\u3002<\/pre>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-verse\">\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5404\u570b\u5206\u6703\u90fd\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u70ba\u6027\u66b4\u529b\u4ee5\u53ca\u57fa\u65bc\u6027\u5225\u7684\u66b4\u529b\u7b49\u53d7\u5bb3\u8005\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4fdd\u8b77\u670d\u52d9\u3002\u4ee5\u83f2\u5f8b\u8cd3\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u806f\u5408\u570b\u4f30\u8a08\u57282020\u5e74\u7531\u65bc\u9694\u96e2\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u65b0\u589e11\u842c4\u5343\u540d\u5a66\u5973\u7d93\u6b77\u8eab\u9ad4\u548c\u6027\u66b4\u529b\u3002<\/pre>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-verse\">\u75ab\u60c5\u5371\u6a5f\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u7ce7\u98df\u7684\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u6027\u3001\u6e1b\u5c11\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u548c\u514d\u65bc\u53d7\u5230\u65bd\u66b4\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u8b93\u5fc3\u7406\u5065\u5eb7\u554f\u984c\u66f4\u52a0\u60e1\u5316\u3002<\/pre>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-verse\">\u79fb\u6c11\u3001\u96e3\u6c11\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u570b\u5bb6\u5883\u5167\u7684\u6d41\u96e2\u5931\u6240\u8005\uff0c\u539f\u672c\u5c31\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5f31\u52e2\u7684\u65cf\u7fa4\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e5f\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u98fd\u53d7\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002<\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6bcf\u6b21\u5927\u707d\u96e3\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u6dd8\u6d17\u3002\u5f31\u8005\u66f4\u5f31\uff0c\u5f37\u8005\u66f4\u5f37\u2014\u2014\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u653f\u7d93\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u5f37\u3001\u9084\u662f\u8eab\u9ad4\u5f37\u5065\u7684\u5f37\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8996\u70ba\u9019\u662f\u300c\u99ac\u592a\u6548\u61c9\u300d\uff08Matthew effect\uff09\uff1a\u300c\u51e1\u6709\u7684\uff0c\u9084\u8981\u52a0\u7d66\u4ed6\uff0c\u53eb\u4ed6\u6709\u9918\uff1b\u51e1\u6c92\u6709\u7684\uff0c\u9023\u4ed6\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4e5f\u8981\u596a\u53bb\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u300c\u5c3c\u91c7\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\uff1a\u300c\u51e1\u6bba\u4e0d\u6b7b\u6211\u7684\uff0c\u5fc5\u4f7f\u6211\u66f4\u5f37\u5927\u300d\uff08&#8221;Was mich nicht umbringt, macht mich st\u00e4rker.&#8221;\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u66f4\u6642\u9ae6\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u53ef\u63a1\u7528\u300c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u5c08\u5bb6\u300d\u5854\u96f7\u4f2f\uff08Nassim Nicholas Taleb\uff09\u5275\u9020\u7684\u65b0\u540d\u8a5e\u300c\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u300d\uff08antifragile\uff09\uff1a\u56e0\u70ba\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u7684\u50b7\u5bb3\u5c0f\u65bc\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u7372\u76ca\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u53cd\u8106\u5f31\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u66f4\u767d\u8a71\u9ede\uff0c\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u6d3b\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u5016\u5b58\u8005\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9084\u80fd\u5fc3\u5e73\u6c23\u548c\u3001\u8863\u98df\u7121\u7f3a\u770b\u8457\u81ea\u9078\u8f2f\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u90fd\u662f\u9019\u5169\u5e74\u5927\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u5016\u5b58\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5225\u5fd8\u4e86\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u4e00\u7a2e\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u300c\u5016\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff08survivorship bias\uff09\uff1a\u904e\u5ea6\u95dc\u6ce8\u300c\u5016\u5b58\u4e86\u67d0\u4e9b\u7d93\u6b77\u300d\u7684\u4eba\u4e8b\u7269\uff0c\u5ffd\u7565\u90a3\u4e9b\u6c92\u6709\u5016\u5b58\u7684\uff08\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u70ba\u7121\u6cd5\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\uff09\uff0c\u6703\u9020\u6210\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u300a\u6697\u6578\u64da\u300b\uff08Dark Data: Why What We Don\u2019t Know Is Even More Important Than What We Do\uff09\u66f8\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5927\u885b\u6f22\u5fb7\uff08David Hand\uff09\u628a\u9019\u7a2e\u504f\u8aa4\u5217\u70ba\u300c\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u6f0f\u6389\u7684\u6578\u64da\u300d\u548c\u300c\u96a8\u6642\u9593\u800c\u7570\u300d\u7684\u7e3d\u548c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-verse\">2013\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5148\u92d2\u96c6\u5718\u767c\u8868\u4e00\u4efd\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u6aa2\u8996\u4e86\u5305\u542b\u548c\u4e0d\u5305\u542b\u4e94\u5e74\u3001\u5341\u5e74\u3001\u5341\u4e94\u5e74\u4e0b\u5e02\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u57fa\u91d1\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u767c\u73fe\u5dee\u5225\u5927\u5f97\u9a5a\u4eba\u3002\u6392\u9664\u5341\u4e94\u5e74\u5167\u4e0b\u5e02\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u5e7e\u4e4e\u662f\u4e0d\u6392\u9664\u4e0b\u5e02\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u5169\u500d\u3002\u9019\u4efd\u7814\u7a76\u9084\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u770b\u898b\u6697\u6578\u64da\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u5e45\u5ea6\uff1a\u53ea\u670954%\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u71ac\u904e\u5341\u4e94\u5e74\u6c92\u6709\u4e0b\u5e02\u3002<\/pre>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5016\u5b58\u8005\u7684\u8072\u97f3\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u4ee3\u8868\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u610f\u5fd7\u554a\u2014\u2014\u53ea\u4fe1\u5949\u5c3c\u91c7\u91d1\u53e5\u7684\u4eba\u5225\u592a\u81ea\u4fe1\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; white-space: normal;\"><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2021\u5e7411\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7d05\u5341\u5b57\u6703\u8207\u7d05\u65b0\u6708\u6703\u570b\u969b\u806f\u5408\u6703\uff08IFRC\uff09\u767c\u5e03\u540d\u70ba\u300c\u6df9\u6c92\u5728\u8868\u5c64\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff08Drowning j &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/?p=32286\" class=\"more-link\">\u95b1\u8b80\u5168\u6587 <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u5927\u707d\u96e3\u5f8c\u7684\u6dd8\u6d17\uff1a\u662f\u300c\u99ac\u592a\u6548\u61c9\u300d\u9084\u662f\u300c\u5016\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff1f<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,39],"tags":[138,7543,7533,5824,7540,7539,7538,7537,7542,1899,2419,7541,7534,7531,7532,7535,7536],"class_list":["post-32286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-24","category-39","tag-covid-19","tag-david-hand","tag-ifrc","tag-nassim-nicholas-taleb","tag-survivorship-bias","tag-7539","tag-7538","tag-7537","tag-7542","tag-1899","tag-2419","tag-7541","tag-7534","tag-7531","tag-7532","tag-7535","tag-7536"],"views":1126,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32286","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=32286"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32286\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":73555,"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32286\/revisions\/73555"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=32286"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=32286"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=32286"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}