{"id":81866,"date":"2024-08-23T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-23T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/?p=81866"},"modified":"2024-08-22T07:26:48","modified_gmt":"2024-08-21T23:26:48","slug":"%e7%83%8f%e5%85%8b%e8%98%ad%e5%85%a5%e4%be%b5%e5%ba%ab%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b%e4%b9%8b%e5%b1%95%e6%9c%9b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/?p=81866","title":{"rendered":"\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u5165\u4fb5\u5eab\u65af\u514b\u4e4b\u5c55\u671b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

2024\u5e748\u670819\u65e5\uff0c\u6fa4\u9023\u65af\u57fa\u5ba3\u7a31\uff1a\u300c\u622a\u81f3\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u6211\u65b9\u90e8\u968a\u638c\u63a7\u8d85\u904e1250\u5e73\u65b9\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u6575\u570b\u9818\u571f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca92\u500b\u805a\u843d\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5982\u679c\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u8aaa\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u6703\u6279\u8a55\u662f\u5531\u8870\u70cf\u514b\u862d\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u662f\u570b\u969b\u5c08\u5bb6\u8aaa\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

\u7f8e\u570b\u667a\u5eab\u300c\u6606\u897f\u570b\u5bb6\u4e8b\u52d9\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u300d\uff08Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft\uff09\u65e9\u572815\u65e5\u5c31\u91dd\u5c0d\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u5165\u4fb5\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u548c\u9577\u671f\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u63a1\u8a2a\u4e86\u6578\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u5b78\u8005\u53ca\u667a\u5eab\u5c08\u5bb6\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4e5f\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u5165\u4fb5\u5eab\u65af\u514b\u4e0d\u4f46\u7121\u6cd5\u9006\u8f49\u6230\u5c40\uff0c\u9084\u5c07\u52a0\u901f\u6557\u4ea1\u3002<\/pre>\n\n\n\n
\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u653b\u52e2\u73fe\u5be6\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5927\u5e2b\u7c73\u723e\u65af\u6d77\u9ed8\uff08John Mearsheimer\uff09\u66f4\u76f4\u8a00\uff1a\u300c\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u5165\u4fb5\u5eab\u65af\u514b\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u5927\u6230\u7565\u5931\u8aa4\uff0c\u5c07\u52a0\u901f\u5176\u6557\u4ea1\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6d88\u8017\u6230\u6210\u529f\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u662f\u96d9\u65b9\u4eba\u54e1\u7684\u50b7\u4ea1\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u67d0\u4e9b\u897f\u65b9\u8a55\u8ad6\u5bb6\u4e00\u76f4\u8ff7\u6200\u7684\u9818\u571f\u9762\u7a4d\u3002\u300d<\/pre>\n\n\n\n
\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u5b88\u52e2\u73fe\u5be6\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5927\u5e2b\u6c83\u723e\u7279\uff08Stephen Walt\uff09\u4e5f\u5766\u8a00\uff0c\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u53bb\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u7684\u53cd\u653b\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u8b49\u660e\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u8981\u596a\u56de\u9019\u4e9b\u5931\u571f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u7684\u8271\u8f9b\uff0c\u300c\u9019\u5834\u884c\u52d5\u5c0d\u666e\u4e01\u4f86\u8aaa\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u5c0f\u5c0f\u5c37\u5c2c\u7684\u5c40\u9762\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u986f\u793a\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u6839\u672c\u6c92\u80fd\u529b\u518d\u5165\u4fb5\u5176\u4ed6\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u3002\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u7684\u547d\u904b\u5c07\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u672c\u571f\u7684\u6230\u6cc1\uff0c\u8ddf\u9019\u6b21\u7684\u5eab\u65af\u514b\u884c\u52d5\u4e26\u7121\u592a\u5927\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u300d<\/pre>\n\n\n\n
\u53f0\u7063\u6709\u300c\u80fd\u7121\u4e0a\u58eb\u300d\u3008\u89c0\u9ede\u6295\u66f8\uff1a\u4ee5\u300a\u5b6b\u5b50\u5175\u6cd5\u300b\u89e3\u6790\u70cf\u8ecd\u300c\u5eab\u65af\u514b\u300d\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\u3009\u65b7\u8a00\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u70cf\u65b9\u8aaa\uff0c\u8ecd\u4e8b\u884c\u52d5\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8981\u5728\u4fc4\u5883\u300c\u5eab\u723e\u65af\u514b\u300d\u5efa\u7acb\u7de9\u885d\u5340\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u8655\u5c0f\u5c0f\u64da\u9ede\u4f55\u4ee5\u8a00\u300c\u5340\u300d\u5462\uff1f\u7de9\u885d\u8ab0\u5462\uff1f\u81ea\u5713\u5176\u8aaa\u7684\u6258\u8a5e\uff0c\u6539\u8b8a\u4e0d\u4e86\u60b2\u6158\u7684\u7d50\u5c40\uff01\u986f\u7136\u70cf\u8ecd\u7684\u884c\u52d5\u6c92\u6709\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u6230\u7565\u3001\u6230\u8853\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u70ba\u653f\u6cbb\u670d\u52d9\uff0c\u662f\u6beb\u7121\u6307\u63ee\u9053\u5fb7\u7684\u4f5c\u6cd5\uff0c\u662f\u5b64\u6ce8\u4e00\u64f2\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u8aaa\u662f\u8ff4\u5149\u8fd4\u7167\uff01\u800c\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u57fa\u672c\u5df2\u8655\u5728\u300c\u5148\u70ba\u4e0d\u53ef\u52dd\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f85\u6575\u4e4b\u53ef\u52dd\u300d\u7684\u6709\u5229\u614b\u52e2\u3002<\/pre>\n\n\n\n
\u6de1\u6c5f\u6230\u7565\u6240\u517c\u4efb\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u63ed\u4ef2\u64b0\u6587\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u66f4\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u5fc3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u82e5\u5c46\u6642\u57fa\u8f14\u7576\u5c40\u4ecd\u57f7\u8ff7\u65bc\u300c\u589e\u52a0\u8ac7\u5224\u7c4c\u78bc\u300d\uff0c\u975e\u4f46\u4e0d\u9858\u5f9e\u7a81\u51fa\u90e8\u64a4\u8ecd\u4ee5\u7e2e\u77ed\u6230\u7dda\u3001\u7bc0\u7701\u5175\u529b\uff1b\u53cd\u800c\u9084\u9010\u6b21\u5411\u7a81\u51fa\u90e8\u5167\u8f38\u9001\u4eba\u54e1\u4ee5\u586b\u88dc\u50b7\u4ea1\uff0c\u5247\u4e0d\u50c5\u6703\u8b93\u70cf\u8ecd\u672c\u5df2\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u524d\u7dda\u5175\u529b\u66f4\u6349\u895f\u898b\u8098\uff0c\u9084\u6703\u8b93\u5eab\u65af\u514b\u7a81\u51fa\u90e8\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6210\u70ba\u4fc4\u8ecd\u6bba\u50b7\u3001\u6d88\u8017\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u751f\u529b\u8ecd\u7684\u9677\u9631\u8207\u5c60\u5bb0\u5834\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8b93\u4fc4\u8ecd\u5f97\u4ee5\u91cd\u73fe1943\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u5eab\u65af\u514b\u6703\u6230\u5f8c\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\u3002<\/pre>\n\n\n\n
\u800c\u4fc4\u570b\u5df2\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u8868\u614b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u524d\u7e3d\u7d71\u3001\u73fe\u4efb\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9ea5\u7dad\u5fb7\u592b(Dmitry Medvedev)\u4eca\u5929(21\u65e5)\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u5165\u4fb5\u4fc4\u570b\u5eab\u65af\u514b\u5dde(Kursk)\u610f\u5473\u8457\uff0c\u5728\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u65bc\u6230\u5834\u4e0a\u88ab\u5fb9\u5e95\u64ca\u6557\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u548c\u57fa\u8f14\u4e4b\u9593\u4e0d\u6703\u9032\u884c\u8ac7\u5224\u3002<\/pre>\n\n\n\n
\u6211\u5f9e\u547d\u7406\u7576\u7136\u770b\u5230\u4e9b\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff0c\u4f46\u66ab\u4e0d\u516c\u958b\u3002\u53ea\u662f\u9996\u6b21\u5b78\u5230\u5b78\u754c\u9084\u6709\u5206\u300c\u653b\u52e2\u73fe\u5be6\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\u8207\u300c\u5b88\u52e2\u73fe\u5be6\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\uff0c\u6709\u610f\u601d\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
2024\u5e748\u670819\u65e5\uff0c\u6fa4\u9023\u65af\u57fa\u5ba3\u7a31\uff1a\u300c\u622a\u81f3\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u6211\u65b9\u90e8\u968a\u638c\u63a7\u8d85\u904e1250\u5e73\u65b9\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u6575\u570b\u9818\u571f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca92\u500b\u805a\u843d\u3002\u300d … \u95b1\u8b80\u5168\u6587 \u70cf\u514b\u862d\u5165\u4fb5\u5eab\u65af\u514b\u4e4b\u5c55\u671b<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[10559,10553,10555,10085,722,6518,10556,10557,10554,3395,10558],"class_list":["post-81866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-24","tag-dmitry-medvedev","tag-john-mearsheimer","tag-stephen-walt","tag-10085","tag-722","tag-6518","tag-10556","tag-10557","tag-10554","tag-3395","tag-10558"],"views":222,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=81866"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81866\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":81878,"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81866\/revisions\/81878"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=81866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=81866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fc.iwant-in.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=81866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}